16 June 2025: As the space industry expands, a UC-led study underscores how smart fuel choices and launch practices can help protect the ozone layer. With the space industry rapidly gaining momentum, new research from Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha | University of Canterbury (UC) highlights the importance of managing this growth sustainably to protect our planet’s wellbeing.
UC supports the advancement of aerospace through research, partnerships, and talent development — and recognises the importance of doing so in ways that protect future generations. This research adds to a growing body of knowledge guiding the sector’s sustainable development.
The ozone layer protects life on Earth from harmful solar ultraviolet (UV) rays and a hole discovered in the 1980s, caused by human-originated pollutants, is slowly healing thanks to global action generated by the Montreal Protocol. But emissions from rocket launches, particularly certain chemicals and particulates, could pose a new challenge.
The UC-led study, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, modelled atmospheric impacts from projected rocket launch rates. While 2019 saw 102 launches, by 2024 that increased to 258 worldwide, with that number expected to be exceeded in 2025. At multiple sites worldwide, the launch industry expects expansive future growth.
The findings show that with around 2,000 launches per year — nearly ten times current levels — the ozone layer could thin by up to 3%, with the most significant losses over Antarctica.
“Fortunately, the ozone losses are small,” said Associate Professor Laura Revell, one of the study’s lead authors. “But they are significant in the context of global ozone recovery.”
Importantly, the researchers also found no significant ozone loss under a more modest scenario of 900 launches per year — showing that informed decision-making can make a difference.
The study highlights that rocket fuel choices matter: chlorine-based fuels and black carbon particulates have the greatest impact on the atmosphere.
“It’s entirely possible to create a launch industry future where we avoid harmful effects,” said co-lead author Dr Michele Bannister. “It’ll take keen effort and enthusiasm from industry and regulators, working together with scientists – but this needs to start now, not after the damage is done.”
The study involved five UC researchers from the Faculties of Science and Engineering (Laura Revell, Michele Bannister, Dave Frame, John Cater, former MSc student Tyler Brown), alongside collaborators in Switzerland, Spain, and the US. It was supported by Rutherford Discovery Fellowships from Te Apārangi | Royal Society of New Zealand.